Monsoon season: keeping every outlet stocked when the roads flood

Monsoon preparedness for a multi-outlet F&B group comes down to three things: keeping people safe, knowing how many days each outlet can trade without a delivery, and having a plan for when the central kitchen truck can’t get through. The northeast monsoon (musim tengkujuh) began on 27 October and is expected to last until March 2027, and the heaviest rain moves around the country over those months. Plan outlet by outlet, not for the network as a whole.

This is a distribution plan, not a flood response plan. Evacuation, building safety and emergency contacts belong to your safety procedures and the authorities. What follows is how stock keeps moving around them.

What is monsoon preparedness for a multi-outlet F&B group?

Monsoon preparedness for a multi-outlet F&B group is the set of decisions, made before the rain, that keeps outlets supplied and staff safe when roads close, deliveries run late and outlets shut for hours or days. It covers where each outlet sits on the monsoon calendar, how much stock it holds, how and when it is supplied, and what happens to stock and production when something goes wrong.

The rain does not arrive everywhere at once. Climatologist Prof Emeritus Datuk Dr Azizan Abu Samah expects heavy rain mainly on the East Coast in November and December, shifting to Johor and Sarawak in January and February, Bernama reported on 1 November. Flash floods (banjir kilat) had already hit Kuala Lumpur after heavy afternoon rain, and floods were reported in Perak, Kedah and Negeri Sembilan.

When	What is expected, and where	What to check in your network
Any time	Afternoon storms and flash floods, as Kuala Lumpur saw in late October	Outlets with basement loading bays or low-lying access roads
November to December	Heavy rain on the East Coast, including Kelantan, Terengganu and northern Kedah	Outlets in those states, and the long-haul runs that serve them
January to February	Heavy rain in Johor and Sarawak	Southern and Sarawak outlets, and the routes into them
Late January to March	Hotter, drier conditions (El Niño)	Price and availability of fresh produce

A weaker monsoon is not a dry one. Prof Emeritus Fredolin Tangang of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia (UKM) said that although the monsoon weakens on average during a strong El Niño, floods can still happen.

Inbound supply tightens too. Last November, the New Straits Times reported Cameron Highlands growers expecting daily output to fall from about 1,000 tonnes to 600–700 tonnes, with tomatoes rising from RM1.80 to RM4 a kilo. Supplier-side resilience has its own playbook, covered in our piece on single-source supplier risk. This one is about the other direction: getting stock from the central kitchen to every outlet.

How many days of stock should an outlet hold before a surge?

Stock cover in days is stock on hand divided by average daily usage. An outlet that uses 40 kg of rice a day and holds 60 kg has 1.5 days of cover. If the next delivery could be a day late, that outlet runs short on day two.

There is no single right number. Work it out per outlet and per item group:

1. Find the longest likely gap. For each at-risk outlet, ask how long it could go without a central kitchen delivery if its usual route closed. One missed run, or two?
2. Raise cover on long-life items first. Rice, oil, dry goods, and frozen or ambient items from the central kitchen can be moved forward safely. Fresh produce and short-shelf-life items can’t; keep those close to normal and plan to top up.
3. Check where the extra stock will sit. A ground-floor storeroom in a row of shops that flooded last year is not a buffer. Keep stock off the floor, or hold it at a nearby outlet that stays dry.
4. Agree the trigger in advance. Decide what moves the plan: a MetMalaysia warning for the district, a road closure, or the area manager’s call. Then the top-up is routine, not a scramble.
5. Bring cover back down afterwards. Extra stock that stays once the warning lifts ties up cash and ages on the shelf.

Dispatch windows, alternate routes and the outlet next door

Move dispatch earlier for city outlets. The recent flash floods in Kuala Lumpur followed heavy afternoon rain. A morning delivery window avoids the hours when roads are most likely to be under water.

Write down alternate routes now. Experienced drivers know which roads flood. Record their routes per outlet, so a relief driver has the same knowledge.

Make turning back an accepted call. No delivery is worth a driver or a vehicle. A driver’s decision to stop or turn back should never be questioned, and the plan should assume some runs will not happen.

Use the outlet next door. When the truck can’t reach an outlet, a nearby outlet that it can reach may be able to spare stock. Record the move as an inter-branch transfer, so both outlets’ figures stay true and the central kitchen’s next plan starts from the right numbers. An informal “just take some” leaves one outlet showing stock it no longer has.

Tell outlets early. A message at 7am saying “today’s delivery arrives at 3pm, not 10am” lets the outlet manager plan lunch around what is already on the shelf.

What should happen when an outlet has to close?

Outlets will close, whether for water at the premises, a flooded access road, or because staff can’t travel safely. The decision belongs to the outlet and area manager, made early, and nobody should be asked to travel through floodwater to open.

Then four things follow quickly.

Tell the central kitchen first. Production for a closed outlet should be stopped or redirected before it is cooked. Two hours’ notice can save a full day’s batch.

Move or write off what is already there. Short-dated stock at the closed outlet may be better used at a neighbouring outlet, if it can be moved safely and kept at temperature. Anything that has been in contact with floodwater should be treated as unsafe and written off. Check your local health office’s guidance before reopening.

Keep FIFO when deliveries slip. A late delivery tempts outlets to put new stock in front. First-in, first-out and expiry checks matter most in the weeks when the delivery rhythm is broken.

Log the closure with a reason. A flood day recorded as an ordinary slow day will quietly drag down next year’s forecast for that outlet. Tag closures and short days so they can be set aside, as we explained in demand forecasting for multi-outlet F&B. Give write-offs a reason code too, so flood losses are counted as flood losses, not as kitchen wastage.

After the rain, the El Niño months

MetMalaysia expects a Super El Niño to bring hotter, drier conditions from late January to March 2027, with maximum temperatures that could pass 41°C, according to the same Bernama report. Prof Fredolin warned that water scarcity and lower crop yields could threaten food security and push up food prices. For kitchens, the question then shifts from getting stock to outlets to what that stock costs. Rather than repeat it here, our guide to re-costing when ingredient prices move every week sets out which items to watch and how to respond.

Where RMS fits

Codemax RMS (Resource Management System) keeps the numbers this plan depends on in one place. Live stock-on-hand by outlet gives each outlet’s cover without a round of phone calls. Outlets order from the central kitchen on mobile, and production is planned against rolling outlet demand, so a closed outlet’s order can be pulled before it is cooked.

Inter-branch transfers are recorded as transfers, keeping both outlets’ figures accurate. FIFO and expiry checks are enforced at stock-out, wastage is recorded by outlet and item, and QR-based tracing follows each batch from raw material through production to delivery, so stock that sat on a delayed truck can be found and checked.

RMS does not forecast the weather or decide when an outlet should close. Those calls stay with your team; RMS gives them an accurate picture of where the stock is when they make them. To see it for your own outlets, talk to us.

A ten-minute check before the next surge

• Which outlets sit on the East Coast, in Johor or Sarawak, or on roads that flooded last year?
• How many days of cover does each of them hold today on rice, oil, dry and frozen goods?
• Does every driver have a written alternate route, and know that turning back is fine?
• Which outlet would supply each at-risk outlet if the truck couldn’t get through?
• Is there a reason code for flood closures and flood write-offs?

If the answers live in one person’s head, write them down this week, before the next surge.

Frequently asked questions

When is the northeast monsoon in Malaysia this year?

The northeast monsoon in Malaysia began on 27 October 2026 and is expected to last until March 2027, Bernama reported. Three to five episodes of continuous heavy rain are expected, mainly between November and January. Heavy rain is expected mainly on the East Coast, including Kelantan, Terengganu and northern Kedah, in November and December, then in Johor and Sarawak in January and February.

How many days of stock should a restaurant keep during the monsoon?

There is no single number of days of stock that suits every restaurant during the monsoon. Work it out per outlet: stock cover in days is stock on hand divided by average daily usage. For outlets in at-risk areas, raise cover on long-life items such as rice, oil, dry and frozen goods to cover the longest likely gap between deliveries, and keep fresh produce close to normal levels.

How do you keep outlets supplied when the central kitchen delivery can't get through?

When a central kitchen delivery can't reach an outlet, the fastest option is usually a transfer from a nearby outlet the truck can reach. Record it as an inter-branch transfer so both outlets' stock stays accurate. Agree alternate routes in advance, move city deliveries to the morning, and tell the outlet early when a delivery will be late.

Is food safe to use after a restaurant floods?

Food, packaging and equipment that have been in contact with floodwater should be treated as contaminated. Discard affected open and porous items, record them as flood write-offs, and clean and sanitise the premises before reopening. Requirements can vary, so check with your local health office or adviser before reopening a flooded outlet.

Does El Niño mean fewer floods in Malaysia this monsoon?

El Niño does not rule out floods in Malaysia this monsoon. UKM climatologist Prof Emeritus Fredolin Tangang told Bernama that although the monsoon weakens on average during a strong El Niño, flooding can still happen. MetMalaysia expects hotter, drier conditions from late January to March 2027, which could put pressure on crop yields and food prices.

Sources

1. MTL, Super El Niño, Malaysia faces flood and drought risks — Media Selangor (Bernama), 1 Nov 2026
2. Vegetable, fish prices soar up to 100 per cent amid monsoon — New Straits Times, 27 Nov 2025